It’s almost the end of the year, so it’s time for analysts to look forward to what we can expect to see in the coming year.
As many others have, I completely missed AI going vertical in 2018. I am now hesitant to forecast because AI is working behind the scenes, creating products that are not disclosed but could be just as disruptive.
Let’s discuss what I see in the future, and I’ll end with my final PProductof the week for 2024, the AI-driven SPAN Electrical Panel, a tool that has helped me identify and eliminate devices I don’t use much but still consume a lot.
AI Revolution
This is what I am writing at AMD’s AI launch event in San Jose, California. Next year, while every chip maker is chasing after the AI genie now, we will see which companies are using AI effectively to advance themselves. AMD is among the companies that are aggressively utilizing AI. However, it is not alone. Microsoft is even aggressive.
AI has enabled faster product launches, more exciting offerings, and improvements in human-machine interaction that focus on how you wish to interact with technology.
This wave will not end until 2024.
Artificial intelligence will soon be used to create more products and improve itself. This will allow for incredible product development speeds and even more advanced capabilities, which, without AI, would have taken until the 2030s to realize.
The pace of change is unprecedented, but it pales in comparison to what we will see in the next decade. The coming decade is not for those who dislike change.
Electric Cars
The move to electric vehicles will be resisted until the charging issues are addressed.
The Tesla charging standard will be a big help. However, it is unlikely that many existing charging stations and cars will switch to the new standard by 2024. This will force buyers to either revert to ICE vehicles (internal combustible engine) or delay new car purchases until new chargers or new cars with the socket are on the market.
Tesla, which might have avoided this downturn but is still under the shadow of its CEO’s conduct, may not be able to prevent this potential downturn.
Autonomous driving
First, Level 3 autonomous cars will be on the market. Most, if they are not all, will be electric. This feature will underperform due to the combination of the electric cars’ pullback and distrust for technology, coupled with a monthly subscription model.
This is not likely and suggests that the new automotive technology will perform below market expectations. This trend will take several years before it is reversed, which is unfortunate because the latest autonomous technology is expected to outperform the current vehicles on the roads and create these negative perceptions.
New hardware designs and head-mounted displays
In 2023, head-mounted displays such as Rokid Max augmented reality glasses and the Goovis G3 Max made significant advances.
This technology will allow smartphones to enter markets that PCs traditionally dominated.
These displays have reached a point where they can be used and are ready for a major company to create innovative and compelling products.
In 2024, it is unlikely that we will see a significant PC replacement, but the foundations for such a change could be laid in 2025 or even 2026.
Deepfakes are used widely.
It is only recently that people have discovered how to use AI to create avatars and then use these avatars instead of actors to create videos with a professional look.
Media outlets will increasingly use this technology, just as they do in South Korea and other places, to relieve the pressure on live TV talent. This technology will also be used to create longer content. However, I do not expect this to be the norm.
We should expect to see an explosion of this type of behavior in three years. It will also be used to discredit opposition in elections and possibly harm the reputation of those the bad actor wishes to hurt.
In 2024, defending against the illicit use of these technologies will be a greater priority.
Work From Home
The trend of working from home will continue to decrease unless there is another pandemic, which may be possible given what’s happening in China.
The corporate sector, including the HR department, has not done enough to ensure that remote employees feel part of their company and aren’t disadvantaged because they work remotely. The lack of progress has been seen in the advancement of remote management tools and the retraining of managers to better manage remote employees.
The move to remote working should be mostly reversed, especially for new hires. This will allow managers and employees who cannot adapt to remote work to have a more inclusive and effective employee experience.
I anticipate that some videoconferencing vendors with less than 10% market share will leave the market. Zoom, currently the market leader, is more likely to be acquired by a player with a marginal market share. Microsoft’s 25% market share, coupled with its policy of supporting remote working, should be a shining example of how to do it right.
Digital Immortality
In 2024, we should start seeing digital copies of people, not digital clones.
This technology allows parents to create a clone that will last for a very long time. It can be used by relatives, children, spouses, or friends to continue interacting with the person after they have passed.
The numbers will be low in 2024, and I anticipate that several issues, namely cost, will need to be resolved for these efforts to become mainstream. This will be more of a taste than a real technology wave. It will probably wait until the technology improves and the training times are more reasonable.
Digital assistants have undergone a massive upgrade
Digital assistants such as Alexa and Siri only offer voice-to-text and text-to-speech interfaces. Next year, these will be replaced with generative AI tools. This will allow for a huge change in intelligence and capability.
In 2024, I predict that some people will spend more time with digital assistants than they do with real people. The idea of dating a digital assistant will become more popular. This increased reliance on digital assistance is likely to lead to several problems. Not the least of these will be aggressive hacking in order for people to manipulate them more effectively.
In 2024, it will be more difficult to distinguish between humans and AIs.
Malware
Malware is another class of product that will undergo a dramatic change in 2024. The malware will be more intelligent, and it will have the ability to self-propagate aggressively. It is more likely that one of these advanced programs could jump containment and cause massive damage worldwide.
The threat of advanced malware to individuals and companies in 2024 may be the greatest, especially in countries at war.
Wrapping up
This is just a small sample of what’s to come in 2024. AI’s impact will be massive and affect staffing, the human-machine interfaces on many devices, and even hostile applications, if they are not all.
Although 2023 was a disruptive year, the next decade will be even more so.
If you do not like change, this decade will be ugly. But if you love change, it should be an exciting time. Maybe you should learn to embrace change.